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投稿时间：2006-09-26 修订日期：2007-02-01
投稿时间：2006-09-26 修订日期：2007-02-01
中文摘要: 使用鲁南地区临沂(1951—2005年)、枣庄(1958—2005年)2个代表站逐月降水资
料，利用累积距平及滑动t检验法、K W检验法及S
PI指数，分析鲁南地区降水量的长期变化趋势及干旱频率变化特征。结果表明：鲁南地区
的年降水量于1970年代中期前后发生显著突变，突变后年降水量减少12％以上，其中汛期降水
量减少16％以上，冬半年降水量变化趋势不显著。干旱年全部发生在年降水量突变后。对比
鲁南地区降水量改变点前后气象干旱发生频率及持续时间发现，就干旱季节而言，临沂各季
干旱频率均明显增大
Abstract:Based on the monthly precipitation date from 2 stations in the South of
Shandong Province, the se
cular variation tendency of precipitation and the drought frequency are analyzed
with the accumulated anomalous, skids the t test and Kruskal Wallis assay
metho
d. The results show that there is a evident decrease of the precipitation in the
south of Shandong Province since 1950s, and a sudden change spot in the mid 197
0s. After the chang spot, the precipitation reduced above 12%, especially in the
rainy season, the precipitation reduced remarkably, above 16%. The dry season p
recipitation change was not remarkable. The droughts all happened after
the sudden change spot. The dry
season frequency and their intensities obviously increas
e since the sudden change spot. The frequencies of the 3 dry month are high
and the periods of continuous droughts are obviously long.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Zhang Meiling | Tengzhou Meteoroigical Office, Shandong Province 277500 |
引用文本：
张美玲,2007.鲁南地区降水量长期变化趋势对干旱的影响[J].气象,33(4):92-96.
Zhang Meiling,2007.Secular Variation Tendency of Precipitation and Droughts in South of Shandong[J].Meteor Mon,33(4):92-96.
张美玲,2007.鲁南地区降水量长期变化趋势对干旱的影响[J].气象,33(4):92-96.
Zhang Meiling,2007.Secular Variation Tendency of Precipitation and Droughts in South of Shandong[J].Meteor Mon,33(4):92-96.