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投稿时间：2006-03-27 修订日期：2007-01-28
投稿时间：2006-03-27 修订日期：2007-01-28
中文摘要: 利用1966—2004年海南岛大风、暴雨、雷暴、冰雹、高温、低温、霜冻、雾等极端天气事件
的年发生日数资料，采用最小二乘法、Mann Kendall法及Morlet小波等方法诊断分
析其变化特征。结果指出：大风、雷暴和雾日呈显著减少趋势，并分别于1992年、1984/198
5年、1983/1984年之交发生突变；高温、暴雨趋频及低温、冰雹、霜冻频数总体趋少变化不
显著，其中，冰雹、霜冻基本处于少变的稳定态势。高温、雷暴存在阶段性中高频周期，其
他极端天气则存在长期和阶段性中低频周期；冰雹日数的变化周期趋于变短，其余极端天气
则有周期变长趋势。初步说明海南极端天气事件频率变化与气候变暖有一定的内在关系。
Abstract:Based on the data of annual gale days, rainstorm, thunderstorm, hail,
high/low temperature, fog, and frost in the Hainan Island from 1966 to 2004, the
variation characters are diagnosed using the least squares method, Mann Kendal
l
method and Morlet Wavelet method. The results show that annual gale days, and d
ays for fog and thunderstorm weather decreased notably, especially in 1992, 1984
-1985 and 1983-1984. Annual high temperature day, and days of rainstorm weather
increased, while days of low temperature, hail, frost decreased slightly. Annual
hail and frost days are stable. High temperature and thunderstorm weather days
are in the high and middle frequency stage, while the other extreme weather appe
ars in low, middle and long range frequency period besides stage periods. The v
ariational period of annual hail days turns to short. And the periods of annual
d
ays of the other extreme events prolonged. It indicates that the extreme weather
events in the Hainan Island have relationship with the global warming.
keywords: extreme weather trend climate change
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 杨馥祯 | 海南省气象科学研究所, 海口 570203 |
| 吴胜安 | 海南省气象科学研究所, 海口 570203 |
引用文本：
杨馥祯,吴胜安,2007.近39年海南岛极端天气事件频率变化[J].气象,33(3):107-113.
Yang Fuzhen,Wu Sheng’an,2007.Change of Extreme Weather Events in Hainan Island for Last 39 Years[J].Meteor Mon,33(3):107-113.
杨馥祯,吴胜安,2007.近39年海南岛极端天气事件频率变化[J].气象,33(3):107-113.
Yang Fuzhen,Wu Sheng’an,2007.Change of Extreme Weather Events in Hainan Island for Last 39 Years[J].Meteor Mon,33(3):107-113.