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气象:2007,33(1):87-93
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2005年AREM模式汛期试验结果评估分析
(中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉 430074)
Evaluation and Analysis of AREM Prediction Productsin Flood Season of 2005
(Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, 430074)
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投稿时间:2006-04-11    修订日期:2006-11-17
中文摘要: AREM2.3模式2005年在中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所汛期试验过程中计算稳定,计算了该模式 降水预报的分区域(长江中下游、华南、华北、东北、西南、湖北省)汛期(6、7、8三个月)T S评分,全国范围汛期漏报率、空报率、预报偏差,及各区域年内重要降水过程预报和实况 的对比及TS评分,计算该模式形势场预报的平均误差、均方根误差、倾向相关系数、误差 标准差,并与持续性预报(将前一天的分析场当作前一天对当天的预报场,以此类推)对 比,以此对模式预报效果进行分析、评估,并做出总结,为模式的进一步开发和应用提供参 考。分析结果表明: AREM2.3模式在2005年汛期试验期间48小时内预报稳定;对于长江中下 游、华北、华南、东北、西南、湖北省以至全国范围均有较好的预报水平,但总体上对于强 降水中心位置的预报情况不是很好;模式对于高空形势场也具有较好的预报能力,对500hPa 位势高度的预报好于对500hPa温度的预报。
Abstract:The operation of AREM2.3 in Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, in the flood season of 2005 is steady. The TS scores of the precipitation forecast are calcul ated in various areas, such as, the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang R iver, South China, North China, Northeast China, Southwest China and Hubei Provi nce in flood season (June, July and August). The fail rate, false rate, predicti ng deviation of the whole China in flood season are calculated.The comparison b etween the forecast and real rain field is made. And the TS scores of important rainfall processes of those areas are calculated. The evaluation of the model prediction is made by comparin g with the persistent forecast. It indicates that th e prediction of AREM2.3 in the flood season of 2005 is steady in 48 hours, and A REM2.3 has relative high prediction ability for rain in the middle and lower rea ches of the Changjiang River, South China, North China, Northeast China, Southwe st China, Hubei Province and the whole China, but the prediction for heavy rain centers is not perfect, AREM2.3 has high prediction ability for meteorological e lements in high level, too, its predicting ability for 500hPa height is better than that for 500hPa temperature. 
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公颖,张兵,廖移山,李俊,2007.2005年AREM模式汛期试验结果评估分析[J].气象,33(1):87-93.
Gong Ying,Zhang Bing,Liao Yishan,Li Jun,2007.Evaluation and Analysis of AREM Prediction Productsin Flood Season of 2005[J].Meteor Mon,33(1):87-93.