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气象:2007,33(1):51-56
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基于对流参数的雷暴潜势预报研究
(安徽省气象台, 合肥 230031)
Thunderstorm Potential Trend Forecast Based on Convection Parameters
(Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031)
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投稿时间:2006-08-08    修订日期:2006-10-27
中文摘要: 为提高雷暴天气的潜势预报能力,在统计分析安徽省雷暴形成天气条件的基础 上,利用2003—2004年T213资料,选取与雷暴相关性好的对流参数作为预报因子。并在考虑 因子季节变化特征的基础上,分别用判别分析法和指标叠加法制作雷暴潜势预报,结果表明 指标叠加法优于判别分析法。最后用指标叠加法试报了2005年3—8月的雷暴,临界成功指数 CSI=69.4%,命中率POD=89.5%,虚假报警率FAR=24.4% ,分区预报准确率也较高。另外,试报期间的区域性冰雹、雷雨大风全部命中,可见该方法 对冰雹、雷雨大风也有较好的指示意义。
Abstract:In order to improve thunderstorm potential forecast ability, on the basis of sta tistics and analysis of thunderstorm forming weather conditions in Anhui Provin ce, the convection parameters were selected from the T213 data during 2 003 to 2004 as forecast factors. By considering the seasonal variation character istics of the factors, the thunderstorm trend is forecasted with the discriminat ion analytical method and index accumulation method. The result indicates that t he latter method excels the former. Finally, the index accumulation method was u sed to forecast the thunderstorm from March to August in 2005, the result is tha t Critical Success Index (CSI) is 69.4%, Percent Of Doom (POD) is 89.5%, False Alarm Rate (FAR) is 24.4%, and the accuracy of regional forecast is b etter. Besides, regional hail and thunderstorm with strong wind during the testing period are all forecasted correctly. It is obvious that this method has better indicative significance to forecast the hail and thunders torm with strong wind.
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基金项目:安徽省十一五科技攻关项目“06013140B”、中国气象局新技术推广项目 “CMATG2006M02”、安徽省局科技带头人基金项目“淮河流域强对流天气监测预警研究”共 同资助。
引用文本:
郝莹,姚叶青,陈焱,边富昌,2007.基于对流参数的雷暴潜势预报研究[J].气象,33(1):51-56.
Hao Ying,Yao Yeqing,Chen Yan,Bian Fuchang,2007.Thunderstorm Potential Trend Forecast Based on Convection Parameters [J].Meteor Mon,33(1):51-56.