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气象:2007,33(1):3-10
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基于雷达数据的风暴体识别、追踪及预警的研究进展
(1.北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京 100871;2.中国气象局北京城市气象研究所)
Review on Development of Radar based Storm Identification, Tracking and Forecasting
(1.Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871;2.Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA)
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投稿时间:2006-09-29    修订日期:2006-11-15
中文摘要: 基于雷达数据的风暴体识别、追踪及预警方法是最早出现的临近预报技术,也是天 气雷达系统和强天气预警业务的基本组成部分。风暴体识别、追踪及预警方法可以分为三大 类:持续性预报法、交叉相关法和单体质心法,它们都属于外推预报法。其中,持续性预报 法目前已经被后两者取代。首先较详细地介绍了交叉相关法和单体质心法的研究历史和主要 算法,然后集中介绍了近几年来在外推预报基础上发展起来的一些新方法。最后,结合悉尼 奥运会期间的FDP项目,讨论了临近预报技术的检验和准确性评价,重点介绍了列联表方法 。
Abstract:The current development on storm identification, tracking and forecast ing based on weather radar data are reviewed. Storm identification , tracking and forecasting, as the earliest nowcasting techniques, are the basic and essential parts of radar and severe weather warning operations. At present, they include three aspects: cross correlation algorithm, cell centroid cracking algorithm, persistence prediction method, which are called as extrapolation. Among t hem, Persistence prediction method has been replaced by the former two methods. Firstly, the history and main algorithms of cross correlation and cell centroid method are presented in detail. Secondly, a few new methods based on the extrapo lation are described. Finally, in combination with FDP project during Sydney Oly mpic Games, test and evaluation on nowcasting technique are also discussed.
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基金项目:本文由高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题(20040001008)资助
引用文本:
韩雷,王洪庆,谭晓光,林隐静,2007.基于雷达数据的风暴体识别、追踪及预警的研究进展[J].气象,33(1):3-10.
Han Lei,Wang Hongqing,Tan Xiaoguang,Lin Yinjing,2007.Review on Development of Radar based Storm Identification, Tracking and Forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,33(1):3-10.