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投稿时间：2005-10-26 修订日期：2006-03-29
投稿时间：2005-10-26 修订日期：2006-03-29
中文摘要: 赤霉病是影响小麦产量的主要病害之一,开展小麦赤霉病产量损失预报对农业生产和国家粮食安全都具有重要意义。利用全国小麦赤霉病产量损失资料、旬平均气温、旬降水量、旬日照时数、旬阴雨日数等资料,根据动态综合聚类指标,建立了赤霉病对小麦产量造成损失的动态预测方法。预测结果表明,10年增减符号预测正确率达90%,产量损失预测平均准确率达75.5%。
中文关键词: 气象要素，小麦赤霉病，产量损失，综合聚类分析
Abstract:The wheat scab is one of the most serious disasters affecting wheat yield. It is important to forecast the yield loss of wheat scab for the agricultural production and the national foodstuff security. The method was developed dynamically to forecast yield loss of wheat scab by using the data of yield loss of wheat scab and ten-days average temperature, ten-days precipitation, ten-days sunshine, ten-days precipitation days and the index of composite cluster analysis. The results show that the accuracy of tendency forecast is 90%, and the average accuracy of quantitative forecast is 755% for 10 years. This method is simple operation with high accuracy and good prospects.
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引用文本：
宋迎波,陈晖,王建林,2006.小麦赤霉病产量损失预测方法研究[J].气象,32(6):116-120.
,2006.Study on Forecast Yield Loss of Wheat Scab[J].Meteor Mon,32(6):116-120.
宋迎波,陈晖,王建林,2006.小麦赤霉病产量损失预测方法研究[J].气象,32(6):116-120.
,2006.Study on Forecast Yield Loss of Wheat Scab[J].Meteor Mon,32(6):116-120.