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投稿时间：2005-07-20 修订日期：2005-10-27
投稿时间：2005-07-20 修订日期：2005-10-27
中文摘要: 验证华南气候谚语“六月逢双暑,有米无柴煮”的符号正确率达到90%,其内部隐含的物理本质可能反映的是月球相对于地球的位相(月相)的年际变化对华南前汛期降水的影响。将其推广到一般情况,求得月相与华南前汛期降水以及江南春雨的相关分布图,表明相关显著,特别是与江南春雨的关系更为密切。计算了月相与江南春雨的30年滑动相关,发现该相关具有很高的稳定性。小波分析表明两者具有相同的2～3年显著周期,说明它们之间内部可能存在物理联系。因此,月相可以作为江南(华南)预测春季(前汛期)降水的一个重要的预报参考判据。月相对降水影响的内部物理机制目前尚不清楚,可能是日月的引潮力的年际变化引起的。
中文关键词: 月相，汛期，降水，相关分析，周期
Abstract:In South China, there prevails a proverb “Man can′t cook rice for the firewood is wetted by rainy weather when it encounters two solar terms of Slight Heat and Great Heat in Chinese lunar June”. The proverb is validated and its accuracy is 90%. In terms of physical meaning, it possibly reflects the effect of the annual variability of the relative phase of the moon (MPH) toward the earth on the rainfall in South China early flood season (SCEFS). From that point of view, the proverb is generalized and the correlation fields between MPH and rainfall in SCEFS and the spring persistent rain (SPR) are calculated. It shows highly significant relationships, especially MPH relates to SPR. Running correlation field between MPH and SPR shows high stability of the relationship. Their wavelet transform shows that they have same significant 2—3a periods, indicating their possible internal physical relationship. Therefore, the relationships can be applied to operational predictions as an important reference. But the mechanism is not clear. Maybe it comes from the annual variability of the tide force of moon.
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引用文本：
万日金,谭晶,潘蔚娟,2006.月相对江南春雨年际变率的可能影响[J].气象,32(4):62-67.
,2006.The possible Influence of Moon Phase on the Inter-annual Variation of the Spring Persistent Rains over Southeastern China[J].Meteor Mon,32(4):62-67.
万日金,谭晶,潘蔚娟,2006.月相对江南春雨年际变率的可能影响[J].气象,32(4):62-67.
,2006.The possible Influence of Moon Phase on the Inter-annual Variation of the Spring Persistent Rains over Southeastern China[J].Meteor Mon,32(4):62-67.