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中文摘要: 针对近年来频繁发生的高温闷热天气,应用石家庄地区17个站近29年的气温、相对湿度和市区8个自动站气温观测资料,采用EOF方法,分析了高温、闷热日数分布特征。结果表明:石家庄地区高温、闷热分布可由气候平均场和第一、第二特征场合成而得,前两个特征场累积方差达80%以上。纬度、海拔高度、地形与高温闷热分布密切相关,城市热岛效应对高温分布的影响可以通过第一特征场反映出来。高温、闷热的第一、第二特征向量场时间系数是日际变化量,它与石家庄市单站风、气温、本区南北向和东西向气压差密切相关,可根据单站要素预报,用回归方程计算得到,据此构成高温、闷热分布预报的EOF方法。经统计检验、拟合检验及预报检验,该方法取得了较为满意的效果,并可投入业务化。
中文关键词: 高温,闷热,EOF,多元回归,预报方法
Abstract:Based on the observation data of temperature and relative humidity of 17 stations and the temperature data of 8 automatic weather stations in Shijiazhuang, by means of EOF technique, the high temperature and muggy weather distribution characteristic is analyzed. The results show that high temperature and muggy field can be composed of climatic and the first and the second characteristic fields. Cumulative variance contribution of the first two characteristic field is as much as 80%. The first characteristic field reflects the actions of latitude and height above sea level and landform, and the impact of urban heat island effects. The coefficient of the first two characteristic field are day-to-day variable, and closely correlated with wind, temperature and baric difference of latitude and longitude. They can be worked out based on weather factors from single station by regression equation. So, the method predicting high temperature and muggy distribution is developed with EOF, it is satisfactory by statistical and fitting test and trial calculation, and can be operated by actual weather forecast.
keywords: high temperature,muggy,EOF,multivariate regression,distribution characteristic,forecast method
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作者 | 单位 |
连志鸾 | 河北省石家庄市气象局,050081 |
尤凤春 | 河北省气象台 |
Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本:
连志鸾,尤凤春,2005.石家庄高温闷热天气气候特征与预报方法[J].气象,31(6):55-60.
,2005.Prediction of High Temperature and Muggy in Shijiazhuang,Hebei Province[J].Meteor Mon,31(6):55-60.
连志鸾,尤凤春,2005.石家庄高温闷热天气气候特征与预报方法[J].气象,31(6):55-60.
,2005.Prediction of High Temperature and Muggy in Shijiazhuang,Hebei Province[J].Meteor Mon,31(6):55-60.