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气象:2005,31(5):12-16
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天山山区近40年冬季温度变化特征
(中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,830002)
Winter Temperature Change for Last 40 Years in Tianshan Mountain
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中文摘要: 利用新疆1959~1998年的冬季温度资料,分析天山山区近40年来冬季温度变化的基本特征,并与新疆南部、新疆北部进行比较,所得主要结果如下(1)天山山区冬季平均温度在冷暖变化阶段上与新疆北部的相似性强于新疆南部。(2)冬季平均温度空间分布的同步变化性以新疆北部为较好,新疆南部和天山山区较差,而冬季平均温度空间分布的反向变化性,以天山山区和新疆南部较大,新疆北部较小。(3)三大区域冬季平均温度20世纪60~70年代的变化趋势是不同的,但70~90年代均表现为持续升温,90年代为最暖。(4)就近40年的显著线性增温趋势的空间分布范围看,以最低温度表现得空间范围最广,最高温度最差,平均温度居中。冬季最低温度增温率以新疆北部最大,新疆南部居中,天山山区最小。新疆南部和新疆北部冬季平均温度存在长度分别为27及29年的相近的最佳增温时段,增温率新疆北部大于新疆南部。(5)新疆北部和新疆南部冬季平均温度均在1979年发生了由低温向高温的突变。
Abstract:With the winter temperature data of Xinjiang during 1959—1998, the features of winter temperature change for the recant 40 Years in Tianshan Mountain are analyzed and compared with those in the Southern and Northern Xinjiang and the main conclusions are as follows: (1) The similarity of warm-cold stage of winter mean temperature between Tianshan Mountain and the Northern Xinjiang is greater than that between Tianshan Mountain area and the Southern Xinjiang. (2) The synchronous variability of spatial distribution of winter mean temperature is best in the Northern Xinjiang, and better in Southern Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountainous area. The reversed variability of spatial distribution of winter mean temperature is best in Tianshan Mountainous area and the Southern Xinjiang, better in Northern Xinjiang. (3) The change trends of winter mean temperature are different for three large regions during 1960s—1970s, but they all show continual warming from 1970s to 1990s, it is the warmest in the 1990s. (4) As to the extension of spatial distribution of the significant linear warming for the recent 40 years, the minimum temperature show the largest spatial extension, mean temperature larger and maximum temperature small. The warming rate of winter minimum temperature is the greatest for Northern Xinjiang, greater for Southern Xinjiang and the least for Tianshan Mountainous area. There are similar optimal periods of winter mean temperature, 27 and 29 years for Southern and Northern Xinjiang respectively. And the warming rate for Northern Xinjiang is greater than that for Southern Xinjiang. (5) A abrupt change of winter mean temperature, from low to high, occurred for Northern and Southern Xinjiang in 1979.
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基金项目:科技部项目(2002CCA04600),国家自然科学基金项目(40265002),新疆气象局课题共同资助
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引用文本:
袁玉江,魏文寿,何清,2005.天山山区近40年冬季温度变化特征[J].气象,31(5):12-16.
,2005.Winter Temperature Change for Last 40 Years in Tianshan Mountain[J].Meteor Mon,31(5):12-16.