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中文摘要: 应用彭曼(Penman)法，并考虑对不同作物发育阶段的订正，估算了鲁西南地区的农田需水量。通过农田需水量与有效降水量差值分析，对二者的供求状况进行了评估。同时还分析了1 96 1～2 0 0 2年降水量和农田需水量的历史资料序列，发现二者都呈递减趋势，且递减的速度较为接近。
中文关键词: 农田需水量，降水量，供求，变化趋势，彭曼法
Abstract:Based on the data of last 42 years, using Penman method and consideration of the modification of different crop's grouth phases,the formland water demand is estimated in the Southwestern part of Shandong Province. By dispersion analysis between formland water demand and valid precipitation, the assessment of water supply and demanding condition is given. The results show that their changing trend are decreased and the rate is so close as well.
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引用文本：
刘了凡,孔凡中,吴雷柱,2005.鲁西南大气降水与农田需水的供求状况及变化趋势[J].气象,31(2):66-69.
,2005.Change Trend of Precipitation and Supply and Demand of Farmland Water in Southwest of Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,31(2):66-69.
刘了凡,孔凡中,吴雷柱,2005.鲁西南大气降水与农田需水的供求状况及变化趋势[J].气象,31(2):66-69.
,2005.Change Trend of Precipitation and Supply and Demand of Farmland Water in Southwest of Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,31(2):66-69.