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中文摘要: 2002年主汛期，“973”(中国暴雨)项目研制开发的η坐标有限区域数值预报模式(AREM )在武汉暴雨研究所进行了每天两个时次(08时、20时)的实时数值预报试验。实时预报表明，该模式适合于我国计算机条件，对我国夏季降水有相当预报能力。对试验结果进行了分区Ts 评分检验，模式对我国东部地区的降水预报评分最高，0 8时起报的0～2 4h时效的降水预报，对24小时降水量大于0。1、10、25和50mm的Ts 评分分别为0。578、0。282、0。144和0。062。对2002年主汛期的几次强降水过程的预报结果表明：模式对2002年梅雨、长江流域暴雨、华南暴雨和华北暴雨都有很好的预报，模式对雨带的位置、移动、降水强度、降水的持续与减弱的预报都具备一定的能力。
中文关键词: AREM模式，降水预报，Ts评分，暴雨
Abstract:During 2002-flood season, the Avanced Rgional E-grid η-coordinates Model(AREM) developed by the “973” Program (China Heavy Rainfall) is run two times every day(BLT 08:00 and BLT 20:00) to carry out real time numerical weather forecast in the Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan. Real time forecast shows that AREM model is suitable to the computer condition and has certain forecast ability for summer precipitation. It shows that the scores of rainfall forecast for East China comes to the first, and the threat scores of 24 hours rainfall forecast made at 08:00 BLT are 0.578, 0.282, 0.144, and 0.062 for the 24 hours rainfall more than 0.1, 10, 25 and 50 mm respectively.The forecast results of several heavy rains in the period of 2002 main flood season show that the model has predicted the Meiyu rains, the heavy rains in the Changjiang valleys, South China and North China well, and the model has certain forecast abilities for the position and movement of the rain band and the intensity, lasting and weakening of rainfall.
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基金项目:科技部重点转面上项目“我国南方致洪暴雨预测预警系统”，湖北省科技攻关计划项目2001AA313B0 1号课题共同资助
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引用文本：
王叶红,王志斌,2005.AREM模式对2002年汛期降水的实时预报试验[J].气象,31(2):17-22.
,2005.A Test for Real-Time Precipitation Forecast during 2002-Flood Season with AREM Model[J].Meteor Mon,31(2):17-22.
王叶红,王志斌,2005.AREM模式对2002年汛期降水的实时预报试验[J].气象,31(2):17-22.
,2005.A Test for Real-Time Precipitation Forecast during 2002-Flood Season with AREM Model[J].Meteor Mon,31(2):17-22.