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中文摘要: 研究了2002年16号台风路径的分析与预报过程，分析了0216号台风在几次关键点的预报过程中出现疑难，预报争议很大的原因。认为类似0216号台风，在其生命史中遇到环境场气压系统比较弱时，要注意可能出现路径停滞、打转、转折等。这时，应仔细分析，避免对预报思路的误导，减少预报服务思路的大幅度摆动，以提高服务质量与效果。注意台风周围的涡旋发生互旋的半径变化、影响的程度，在分析弱涡旋时，注意水汽通道云图等其他参考工具是有意义的。
中文关键词: 台风，路径，预报难点
Abstract:A research on the track of Typhoon Sinlaku and the course of prediction,and analysis of the argument of some difficulty on forecasting anomalous moving track are conducted. Many factors indicated that when the steering flow is too weak,typhoons like Sinlaku sometimes stop,turn and its moving track,then a careful analysis should be made and careful observation of binary cyclones should also been done. Therefore we can say,vapor imagery is an useful tool.
keywords: typhoon,moving track,forecast difficulty
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引用文本：
钱燕珍,张寒,2004.台风森拉克路径与预报难点分析[J].气象,30(9):19-23.
,2004.Analysis of Moving Track of Typhoon Sinlaku and Some Forecast Difficulty[J].Meteor Mon,30(9):19-23.
钱燕珍,张寒,2004.台风森拉克路径与预报难点分析[J].气象,30(9):19-23.
,2004.Analysis of Moving Track of Typhoon Sinlaku and Some Forecast Difficulty[J].Meteor Mon,30(9):19-23.