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中文摘要: 滑坡是江西最严重的地质灾害,在自然灾害中仅次于洪涝灾害和旱灾。滑坡的形成除与地质条件有关外,降雨和人类的工程活动是很重要的诱发因素。通过分析大量的滑坡资料和气象(雨量)数据,研究和探讨了滑坡的发生与降水特征之间的关系,发现滑坡的发生与近3天内的降水强度、过程降水总雨量、降水的持续时间等关系十分密切。建立了一个用日综合雨量预测滑坡发生的数学统计模型,并对江西2002年3次重大滑坡过程进行了检验,效果良好。
中文关键词: 地质灾害，滑坡，暴雨，日综合雨量
Abstract:The landslide is the most serious geological disaster and the most serious natural disaster and next to the disasters of flood and drought in Jiangxi province. Rainfall and human activities are of the very important triggering factors of the landslide relating to geological condition. The data of landslide and rainfall from 1970 are analyzed and the relation between the landslide and rainfall are studied. The result shows the occurrence of landslide is closely related with rainfall in 3 days, and the total rainfall in a process and its duration. A mathematic statistical model in which daily combined rainfall is used to predict the occurrence of landslide is developed and the applicational tests indicated good effect of the application of the model to 3 serious landslide events in 2002 in Jiangxi province.
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基金项目:2002年度国家科技部科研院所社会公益专项研究“暴雨型地质灾害风险预报研究”项目资助
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引用文本：
单九生,刘修奋,魏丽,朱星球,2004.诱发江西滑坡的降水特征分析[J].气象,30(1):13-15.
,2004.Rainfall Characteristics Analyses on landslide in Jiangxi Province[J].Meteor Mon,30(1):13-15.
单九生,刘修奋,魏丽,朱星球,2004.诱发江西滑坡的降水特征分析[J].气象,30(1):13-15.
,2004.Rainfall Characteristics Analyses on landslide in Jiangxi Province[J].Meteor Mon,30(1):13-15.