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中文摘要: 根据误差的特性,即误差由系统误差和随机误差组成,对保山5月雨量的几种预报方法的预报结果进行分析,寻找系统误差的订正方法,降低系统误差的影响。将几种预报方法订正后的结果平均从而消除随机误差,其预报结果明显改善,平均误差和均方根误差明显降低,预报准确率明显提高,可以在业务预测中广泛推广应用。
中文关键词: 预报集成，回归分析，5月雨量，系统误差
Abstract:In consideration of the error comprised of systematic and random error, the error analysis of the May rainfall forecast of several methods in Baoshan, Yunnan Province is made. And first, the systemic error correction method of each forecast technique is found out, to reduce its effect. Then, the corrected forecast is averaged, to eliminate the random error. The results show that mean error and mean square root error decrease obviously, and the forecast accuracy is improved obviously.
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基金项目:云南省“十五”科技攻关项目2001NG4304资助
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引用文本：
杨松,杞明辉,姚德宽,2003.误差订正在预报集成中的应用研究[J].气象,29(12):22-24.
,2003.Application of Error Correction in Forecast Ensemble[J].Meteor Mon,29(12):22-24.
杨松,杞明辉,姚德宽,2003.误差订正在预报集成中的应用研究[J].气象,29(12):22-24.
,2003.Application of Error Correction in Forecast Ensemble[J].Meteor Mon,29(12):22-24.