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中文摘要: 根据北京地区2003年4月21日～5月20日逐日SARS发病人数序列,用正交多项式法拟合发病人数的趋势变化,将波动量(实际发病人数与趋势量之差)与前期气象因子进行相关分析,结果表明,该波动量与9～10天前的最高气温、气温日较差、相对湿度等因子显著相关,在此基础上,建立的回归估计模型能较好地拟合逐日发病人数的波动实况。
Abstract:Based on the series of daily SARS incident numbers from April 21 to May 20,2003,in Beijing area, the vacillating measurements affected by meteorological condition are separated from total tendency, with orthogonal polynomial methods. The results of correlation analysis show that they are significantly related with daily maximum temperature, daily range and relative humidity ahead of 8 to 9 days. On this basis, the regression estimation model can perfectly fit historic series of daily incidence fluctuation of this disease.
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引用文本：
叶殿秀,杨贤为,张强,2003.北京地区SARS与气象条件关系分析[J].气象,29(10):42-45.
,2003.An Analysis of the Relationship between SARS and Meteorological Conditions in Beijing Area[J].Meteor Mon,29(10):42-45.
叶殿秀,杨贤为,张强,2003.北京地区SARS与气象条件关系分析[J].气象,29(10):42-45.
,2003.An Analysis of the Relationship between SARS and Meteorological Conditions in Beijing Area[J].Meteor Mon,29(10):42-45.