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中文摘要: 根据新预报业务流程的要求,用MICAPS平台中的HLAFS产品场与暴雨发生的初始、中间、结束过程相对应的三维空间物理量场的相似程度,根据场相似的数量作综合判别分析作出有无区域暴雨的预报。使用动力过程相似释用法实现了从资料准备到最后预报结果生成的程序化、自动化、客观化。根据天气过程分类建立的两类模型以场平均距离为依据,作出暴雨预报相似判别分析结果,其预报的检验效果令人满意,1 999～2002年5～9月平均Ts超过33%。
中文关键词: HLAFS，MICAPS，暴雨，模型，相似预报，动力过程
Abstract:With the need in the new forecasting operation process,by virtue of the similarity between the HLAFS products in MICAPS platform and the three-dimensional space physics field relative to the initial,development and extinction of the heavy rain,a prediction of the on/off region heavy rain is made under complex examination and analysis which is based on the magnitude interpretation and application. The programming, automation and objectivity are realized in the whole process. Based on the mean field distance of the two types of weather process,the heavy rain prediction with the analog discriminatory analysis results is made. The examing results are reasonable, the mean TS during May-September,1999-2002 is more than 33%.
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基金项目:贵州省气象局“短平快”2000年课题项目资助。
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引用文本：
杨仁勇,伦绪勇,杨绍洪,2003.HLAFS产品暴雨动力过程相似释用法及业务应用[J].气象,29(7):27-30.
,2003.Similar-Dynamic Process Interpretation and Operational Application of HLAFS Products to Heavy Rain Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,29(7):27-30.
杨仁勇,伦绪勇,杨绍洪,2003.HLAFS产品暴雨动力过程相似释用法及业务应用[J].气象,29(7):27-30.
,2003.Similar-Dynamic Process Interpretation and Operational Application of HLAFS Products to Heavy Rain Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,29(7):27-30.