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中文摘要: 利用最优化订正法,通过对MAPS数值降水预报进行订正,制作长江上游六大流域短期面雨量预报。2002年6～10月业务试验表明,长江上游六大流域平均的常规降水面雨量预报准确率比MAPS高15%左右,强降水面雨量预报准确率比MAPS高19%左右,强降水天气过程的击中率为48%左右,取得了较好的效果。
中文关键词: 最优化订正法，MAPS，六大流域，面雨量预报
Abstract:By using the optimum correction method,the forecasting of short-rang area mean rainfall of the six drainage areas in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River is done based on correcting the MAPS precipitation numerical forecasting. The operational experiments from June to October show that accuracy of routine mean area rainfall is higher about 15% than that of MAPS,and accuracy of heavy mean area rainfall is higher about 18% than that of MAPS , and the percentage of hits is about 48%.So,it has good effect.
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基金项目:中国气象局三峡保障服务项目资助
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引用文本：
周筱兰,张礼平,王仁乔,顾永刚,2003.应用最优化订正法制作长江上游面雨量预报[J].气象,29(3):31-33.
,2003.Application of Optimum Correction Method to Forecasting ofheavy Area Rainfall over the Upper Reaches of Changjiang River[J].Meteor Mon,29(3):31-33.
周筱兰,张礼平,王仁乔,顾永刚,2003.应用最优化订正法制作长江上游面雨量预报[J].气象,29(3):31-33.
,2003.Application of Optimum Correction Method to Forecasting ofheavy Area Rainfall over the Upper Reaches of Changjiang River[J].Meteor Mon,29(3):31-33.