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中文摘要: 利用典型相关方法作云南汛期( 6～8月)降水的预报试验,选取有实际预报意义的北半球500hPa场1～4月平均环流特征量、部分关键区的高度和距平资料及太阳黑子数作为共同影响因子,建立典型相关模型。并取所有的和前10个典型变量分别作汛期雨量预报对比。对1998年、1999年的汛期雨量预报结果表明:取前10个典型变量为预报因子作汛期雨量预报的准确率优于取所有典型场为预报因子的预测模型。从实况检验来看,该模型物理意义清晰,效果较好。并作了2000年的汛期预报,其准确率为10/16。
中文关键词: 典型相关，汛期雨量，预报试验
Abstract:By using canonical correlation method,the forecasting experiment of the rainfall during the flood season in Yunan Province is performed.The mean circulation field of 500hPa,its height anomalies in some key regions and sunspot number from January to April during 1960—1997 are selected as the common influence factors,and the canonical correlation models,which include the whole factors and the first ten factors,are built and used to predict the rainfall during the flood season.The results show that the model with the first ten canonical variables in better than that with the whole factors for 1998 and 1999,respectively.The accuracy of prediction in 2000 is 10/16.
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基金项目:国家“九五”重中之重科技攻关项目云南专题“云南短期气候预测系统的研究(96-908-05-08)”
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引用文本：
张万诚,郑建萌,解明恩,2002.典型相关方法在低纬高原汛期降水预报中的应用试验[J].气象,28(6):32-34.
,2002.Application of Canonical Correlation Method to Forecasting Rainfall during Flood Season in the Plateau of Low Latitude[J].Meteor Mon,28(6):32-34.
张万诚,郑建萌,解明恩,2002.典型相关方法在低纬高原汛期降水预报中的应用试验[J].气象,28(6):32-34.
,2002.Application of Canonical Correlation Method to Forecasting Rainfall during Flood Season in the Plateau of Low Latitude[J].Meteor Mon,28(6):32-34.