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中文摘要: 使用天气动力学和统计学相结合的方法,以地面影响系统为依据、700hPa西南急流为条件对1983～1999年6～8月青岛地区40次暴雨进行了分型,划分为气旋、台风和冷锋三类。以气旋类暴雨为例,根据预报经验,选取相应的预报因子,建立0、1权重回归方程,用以预报青岛地区6～8月未来24小时的暴雨。气旋类方程准确率为78.0 %。用此方法对2000年6～8月进行试报,效果较满意。
中文关键词: 准饱和，潜在不稳定，高能区
Abstract:Based on the basic conditions of surface influence system and of the southwest jet at 700hPa,40 rainstorms in June-Augest from 1983 to 1999 in Qingdao City are classified into three patterns with the method of the synoptic dynamics and statistics:cyclone,typhoon and cold-front.According to the prediction experience,a 0,1 weight equation is obtained to forecast the rainstorm at Qingdao City in summer.For an example,the accuracy of cyclonic rainstorm is 46/59(78.9%).
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引用文本：
耿敏,韩春深,林滋新,2001.青岛气旋类暴雨预报方法[J].气象,27(12):26-28.
,2001.Rainstorms of Cyclone Forecast Method in Qingdao City[J].Meteor Mon,27(12):26-28.
耿敏,韩春深,林滋新,2001.青岛气旋类暴雨预报方法[J].气象,27(12):26-28.
,2001.Rainstorms of Cyclone Forecast Method in Qingdao City[J].Meteor Mon,27(12):26-28.