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中文摘要: 利用基于预测误差平方和(PRESS)准则的逐步回归分析和基于残差平方和(RSS)准则的逐步回归分析建立了舟山市3个县区站汛期(5～9月)降水量的预报模型,并对两种方法的预测结果进行预报集成,经试报和预报检验表明,该模型的预测效果较好。
中文关键词: PRESS准则，RSS准则，逐步回归，汛期，降水量预报
Abstract:With stepwise regression analysis on the basis of the criterion from Prediction Error Sum of Squares (PRESS) and on the basis of the criterion from Residual Sum of Squares (RSS),the forecasting model of precipitation over Zhoushan in Rainy season (May to September) were studied.Moreover,the scheme of forecast ensemble by forecast results of two predictive method is proposed.Results show that effects of the prediction of this scheme are superior.
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基金项目:浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(498022)资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本：
王雷,曹美兰,2001.舟山市汛期降水量预报方法[J].气象,27(9):39-42.
,2001.On Forecasting of Rainfall over Zhoushan in Rainy Season[J].Meteor Mon,27(9):39-42.
王雷,曹美兰,2001.舟山市汛期降水量预报方法[J].气象,27(9):39-42.
,2001.On Forecasting of Rainfall over Zhoushan in Rainy Season[J].Meteor Mon,27(9):39-42.