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气象:2001,27(3):12-15
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华南登陆台风频数的变化及其与ENSO事件的关系
(1.广东省气象局,广州 510080;2.广州热带海洋气象研究所)
Variations of Annual Frequency of Landfall Typhoons in South China and Its Relation with ENSO
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中文摘要: 利用1890~1999年登陆于我国的台风资料(指热带风暴、强热带风暴及台风) ,主要采用小波分析方法研究华南登陆台风多时间尺度特征,并探讨台风与ENSO事件的关系。结果表明,华南登陆台风占全国的63%,平均每年5个(最多10个、最少1个) ,主要周期有15、5、80年,在20世纪60年代以前15年周期显著,60年代及以后5年周期明显。台风频数与ENSO事件的类型及其季节有密切的关系,华南台风在拉尼娜年始于夏季的当年明显偏多(比厄尔尼诺年平均多1.8个) ,台风偏多年(年频数≥7) ,也是拉尼娜年数多于厄尔
Abstract:Data of tropical storms and severe tropical storms and typhoons making landfall on China from 1890 to 1999 were used. With the technique of wavelet analysis, multi-time-scale features and links between the typhoon and ENSO were discussed.The result shows that typhoons making landfall in this part of the country take up 63% of the national total, being an average of 5 per year (10 at most and 1 at least). The landfall occurs mostly at periods of 15, 5 and 80 years, in which the 15-year period is the most prominent before the 1960's while the 5 year period is the main tone in the 1960s and afterwards. There is a close link between the frequency of typhoon appearance and the ENSO event and time of the year. There are much more typhoons in South China in resent years in which the La Nina phenomena first appear in summer, being generally 1.8 typhoons more than in the El Nino years. For years with anomalous more typhoons (defined so when the annual frequency ≥7), the La Nina year is also favored against the El Nino year by a margin of about 1/3.
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基金项目:国家“九五”重中之重科技项目“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”96-908-05-07专题资助
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引用文本:
杨绮薇,黄增明,林爱兰,2001.华南登陆台风频数的变化及其与ENSO事件的关系[J].气象,27(3):12-15.
,2001.Variations of Annual Frequency of Landfall Typhoons in South China and Its Relation with ENSO[J].Meteor Mon,27(3):12-15.