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气象:2001,27(1):35-38
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陇南伏期旱涝指数及预测模型
(甘肃省陇南地区气象局,武都 746000)
The Index Figure of Floods or Drought in Hot Summer and Its Prediction Model in Longnan
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中文摘要: 从陇南气候规律及农业生产实际出发,制定出客观定量衡量陇南伏期旱涝特征的旱涝指数,并利用1967~1996年旱涝指数,用EOF对陇南伏期旱涝进行分片,分析其时空分布特征,建立各片伏期旱涝均生函数预测模型,通过应用,预报准确率有较大提高。
Abstract:By using of the climatic rule and the condition of agricultural production in Longnan,the index figure of floods or drought used to judge the guantitative character of floods or drought in hot summer was ascertained.Based on the index figure from 1967 to 1996,with EOF analysis,the regions of floods or drought in hot summer in Longnan were divided into different parts.By analysing the character in these parts,the prediction model of the mean generating function method was established.
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引用文本:
肖志强,尚学军,樊明,张燕,冯军,白建国,2001.陇南伏期旱涝指数及预测模型[J].气象,27(1):35-38.
,2001.The Index Figure of Floods or Drought in Hot Summer and Its Prediction Model in Longnan[J].Meteor Mon,27(1):35-38.