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中文摘要: 用η坐标中尺度模式模拟了1998年7月20日20时～21日20时(北京时，下同)发生在湖北省东部的一次强降水过程。根据20日20时降水的实际发生区域，调整了武汉以南的一块与实际降水对应区域的850～400hPa的湿度初始场。试验结果表明，模式降水预报效果强烈地依赖于中低层中尺度水汽初值。当探空网资料的客观分析场不能正确地反映出中尺度高湿区的存在时，预报结果与实际偏差很大。根据实际降水区域对湿度场作人为调整后，预报效果大大地趋近于实际情况。模拟试验效果说明了随着数值模式分辨率的提高，利用较密集的地面降水观测资料改善模式初值场的重要性。
中文关键词: 数值模式，水汽初值，降水量
Abstract:A severe rainfall process occurring in the east of Hubei province from 2000 BST of July 20 to 2000 BST of July 21,1998 was simulated by a η-coordinate mesoscale numerical model.According to the actural rainfall area, the humidity initial field at the level from 850hPa to 400hPa was adjusted.The test result shows that the forecast efficiency is strongly determined by the initial value of the mesoscale moisture at the mid-level and low-level.When the objective analysis on the radio-sounding data fails to correctly indicate the existence of the mesoscale high humidity area,the forecast extremely deviates from the actural situation.But when the humidity field is adjusted in accordance with the actual rainfall area,the forecast efficiency is greatly improved.The simulation effect reveals the importance of using intensive observation rainfall data to improve the initial field of the numerical model especially after the resolution of the model is increased.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“我国重大气候和天气灾害形成机理与预测理论研究”G1998040910号课题，“湖北省大涝年暴雨洪涝成因
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引用文本：
崔春光,2000.强降水过程模式中尺度水汽初值的敏感性试验[J].气象,26(11):3-6.
,2000.Sensitivity Test for Mesoscale Moisture Initial Value in Numerical Model for a Severe Rainfall Process[J].Meteor Mon,26(11):3-6.
崔春光,2000.强降水过程模式中尺度水汽初值的敏感性试验[J].气象,26(11):3-6.
,2000.Sensitivity Test for Mesoscale Moisture Initial Value in Numerical Model for a Severe Rainfall Process[J].Meteor Mon,26(11):3-6.