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气象:1999,25(9):15-20
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η坐标有限区域数值预报模式的实时预报试验
(湖南省气象台,长沙 410007)
A Real time Precipitation Forecast in Flood Period of 1998 with the η Coordinate Limited area Nested Grid Model
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中文摘要: 给出了η坐标有限区域数值模式对1998年汛期降水的实时预报试验结果,表明利用T106资料作初值,模式对湖南汛期降水有相当的预报能力。在6月中、下旬和7月下旬的主汛期预报中,雨区范围(24小时降水大于1m m)预报的TS值为56.4% ;24小时降水大于10mm 、25mm 和50mm的TS值分别为33.9% 、21.6% 和10.6%,优于HLAFS和T106的预报结果,其中降水大于25mm的TS值要比HLAFS的提高13.1% 。
Abstract:A real time testing result of precipitation forecast in 1998 flood period with a limited area nested grid model(LNGM) of η-coordinate was given.And it has indicated that this NWP with real-time initial field data of T106L19(the numerical weather forecast model of China)has a better TS forecast score of precipitation in the flood period in Hunan.In the second & third dekad of June and the third dekad of July in 1998 i.e.Hunan′s main flood period,the TS for precipitation forecast (24 hours) in the limited-area(hyetal region) with its center in Hunan,are 56.4%,33.9%,21.6% & 10.6% respectively to ≥1mm,≥10mm,≥25mm,≥50mm/24h,better than T106L19 and HLAFS(the mesoscale numerical weather forecast model of China),and the TS of precipitation ≥25mm/24h is 13.1% higher than HLAFS.
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方慈安,梅修宁,毛光祥,1999.η坐标有限区域数值预报模式的实时预报试验[J].气象,25(9):15-20.
,1999.A Real time Precipitation Forecast in Flood Period of 1998 with the η Coordinate Limited area Nested Grid Model[J].Meteor Mon,25(9):15-20.