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中文摘要: 为使多种方法的预报结果集成一个优化的预报，作者提出了一种称为最优调合法的集成预报技术。该技术既考虑了持续性预报又考虑了预报方法所具有的系统性误差。首先运用多种方法建立多年试报数据集，随后对数据集构建线性模型，用此模型对我国汛期（６～８月）降水场进行了试验，证明最优调合法能显著提高预报技巧，但其效果有明显的年际差别。
中文关键词: 预报集成，年际气候预报，最优化
Abstract:In order to combine forecsts made with several methods with an optimizing forecast,a technique of combining forecast,which is called an optimal blending method,is suggested.The technique considers both a persistence forecast and systematic errors existing in the methods.A hindcast data the for years was established.Then a linear model was set up with the data set.The test for the precipitation field in summer(June,July,August) was conducted.It shows that the optimal blending method can improve the forecast skill significantly,but the skill varies year-to-year.
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基金项目:中国气象科学研究院专项研究基金
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引用文本：
曹鸿兴,谷湘潜,1999.一种集成预报技术——最优调合法[J].气象,25(5):3-7.
,1999.A Technique of Combining Forecast:Optimal Blending Method[J].Meteor Mon,25(5):3-7.
曹鸿兴,谷湘潜,1999.一种集成预报技术——最优调合法[J].气象,25(5):3-7.
,1999.A Technique of Combining Forecast:Optimal Blending Method[J].Meteor Mon,25(5):3-7.