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中文摘要: 对中国粮食总产量的结构分析表明：①粮食作物平均单产的变化在粮食总产量的变化中约占2／3以上，起着决定性的作用；②50年代以来，小麦、玉米产量在粮食总产量中的份额呈增加之势，而水稻所占份额相对稳定，大豆等其它作物的份额则有下降趋势；③就主要粮食作物单产而言，一季稻的产量为最高，小麦产量的增长为最快。通过分析中国粮食作物平均单产的丰歉与气象条件的关系发现：西北和东北地区的降水量、华北地区的积温与产量丰歉关系密切，依此建立的产量丰歉评估模型的准确率可达85％以上。
中文关键词: 中国，粮食总产量，结构分析，丰歉评估
Abstract:①The variation of the mean grain yield per unit area amounts to two thirds of change of the total grian yield,and plays a decisive role. ② Since the 1950s,percentages of wheat and maize yield in the total grain yield have been individually tending to increase,rice to relatively stable,but that of soybean etc. to decrease.③ So far as the principal grain crop yields per unit area are concerned,the yield of single rice harvest is the highest,the increase of wheat yield is the fastest. The relationships between bumper or poor harvest of the mean grain crops per unit area and weather condition suggests that the connections between precipitation of Northwest and Northeast regions,and accumulated tempertatue of North China and good or bad harvest of the grain crops are intimate. The accuracy of this model established by these factors for assessing good or bad harvest of the grain crops is over 85 Percent.
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引用文本：
王建林,太华杰,1998.中国粮食总产量结构分析与丰歉评估[J].气象,24(12):7-12.
,1998.The Analysis of Composition and Assessment of Bumper or Poor Harvest for Total Grian Yield in China[J].Meteor Mon,24(12):7-12.
王建林,太华杰,1998.中国粮食总产量结构分析与丰歉评估[J].气象,24(12):7-12.
,1998.The Analysis of Composition and Assessment of Bumper or Poor Harvest for Total Grian Yield in China[J].Meteor Mon,24(12):7-12.