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中文摘要: 采用不同的统计分析方案分析福建省降水气候变化对人工降水效果评价结果的影响。分析结果表明：在福建省降水偏多年份开展人工降水使效果评价结果产生“正噪声”，在降水偏少年份开展人工降水使效果评价结果产生“负噪声”。不同试验方案对降水气候变化的反应有明显的差异，序列试验反应最为明显，历史回归试验次之，多因子分层回归试验产生的“噪声”最小。此外，还对不同试验方案效果显著的临界值进行了估算。
中文关键词: 降水气候变化，人工降水，效果评价
Abstract:The influence of the climatic variation of rainfall on the evaluation of precipitation enhancement effect was analysed. The results show that the evaluation of precipitation enhancement effects is influenced by the climatic variation of rainfall. In the abundent rainfall years in Fujian Province,the positive false effects are obtained,and in the lacking rainfall years,the negative false effects are obtained. The false effects of sequentail experiment are higher than that of other ones. The multifactor gradational experiment decreases the influence of climatic variation of rainfall on the evaluation of the effects.
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引用文本：
曾光平,高建芸,朱鼎华,冯宏芳,1998.降水气候变化对人工降水效果评价的影响[J].气象,24(11):12-15.
,1998.Influence of the Climatic Variation of Rianfall on the Evaluation of Precipitation Enhancement Effect[J].Meteor Mon,24(11):12-15.
曾光平,高建芸,朱鼎华,冯宏芳,1998.降水气候变化对人工降水效果评价的影响[J].气象,24(11):12-15.
,1998.Influence of the Climatic Variation of Rianfall on the Evaluation of Precipitation Enhancement Effect[J].Meteor Mon,24(11):12-15.