本文已被：浏览 1119次 下载 1289次
中文摘要: 将国家气象中心T63、T106和欧洲中心数值模式中温度预报场、湿度预报场、u、v分量预报场分别插值到108个测站上，以此作为预报因子，运用PPM、MOS、KF（卡尔曼滤波法）等方法分别建立最低、最高气温预报方程，用以上预报方法所得的预报结果作为预报因子，进行二次滤波集成和全集成预报，并建立了“数值产品省级分县温度预报系统”。1997年6～11月将该预报系统投入业务运行，取得了良好的预报效果。
中文关键词: 数值产品，二次滤波集成，全集成，分县温度预报
Abstract:The NWP fields of T.H.U.V. of NMC's T63,T106 and ECMWF's numerical model were separtely interpoleted into 108 meteorological stations. The interpoleted results were used as predicting factors to establish predicting equations of max. and min. tempreture by means of PPM,MOS and KF filter methods. With the above predicted results,the second filter consensus forecast and perfect consensus forecast were made,and the Temperatute Forecasting System for Every County by the provincial meteorological observatory based on the NWP product was developed. The operational practics from June to November in 1997 proved that the system showed good predicting results.
keywords: NWP product,second filter consensus,perfect consensus,temperature forecast for every county
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 苗爱梅 | 山西省气象台，太原 030006 |
| 胡永祥 | 山西省气象台，太原 030006 |
| 郭玉玺 | 山西省气象台，太原 030006 |
| 梁明珠 | 山西省气象局 |
| 闫美芳 | 山西省气象局 |
| 陆如华 | 国家气象中心，北京 100081 |
| Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本：
苗爱梅,胡永祥,郭玉玺,梁明珠,闫美芳,陆如华,1998.以数值产品为基础的省级分县温度预报方法[J].气象,24(9):41-46.
,1998.Study of Temperature Forecasting method at the County level based on the NWP Product[J].Meteor Mon,24(9):41-46.
苗爱梅,胡永祥,郭玉玺,梁明珠,闫美芳,陆如华,1998.以数值产品为基础的省级分县温度预报方法[J].气象,24(9):41-46.
,1998.Study of Temperature Forecasting method at the County level based on the NWP Product[J].Meteor Mon,24(9):41-46.