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中文摘要: 通过分析近39年山东省水资源的历史倾向性、阶段性、周期性，研究了水资源总量及径流量和地下水位的变化特征。结果表明，山东水资源量的年际变化大且呈快速下降态势，其中，地表径流量的下降尤为明显；水资源的变化存在一定的阶段性和周期性。通过分析降水与水资源的关系，发现两者的变化规律一致，但降水对水资源，特别是对地下水分量的影响有一定的持续性。建立均生函数预测模型，对未来水资源总量进行预测显示，1998～2000年山东水资源仍处于偏少状态，且呈逐年减少趋势。
中文关键词: 水资源，变化特征，趋势预测
Abstract:The variation features of total amount of water resource and the runoff as well as underground water level were studied through analysing the historical tendency,stage and periodicity of water resources in Shandong Province. The results showed that the interannual change was great and water resources decreased rapidly,especially the amount of runoff. Certain stages and periodicities existed in the variation of water resources. The changing regularity of precipitation and water resources was consistent in terms of the relations between them,but the influence of rainfall on water resources,especially underground water,were successive to some extent. The forecast made by mean generation function demonstrates that the total amount of water resources from 1998 to 2000 will be still less than usual and decline gradully year by year.
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引用文本：
朱平盛,胡桂芳,张苏平,1998.山东水资源分析及趋势预测[J].气象,24(3):3-8.
,1998.Analysis and Tendency Prediction of Water Resources in Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,24(3):3-8.
朱平盛,胡桂芳,张苏平,1998.山东水资源分析及趋势预测[J].气象,24(3):3-8.
,1998.Analysis and Tendency Prediction of Water Resources in Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,24(3):3-8.