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气象:1998,24(2):3-8
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气候变化情景生成技术研究综述
(中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081)
Study on the Creation of Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Analysis:A Review
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中文摘要: 简单回顾了气候变化对农业生产影响研究的进展,分析了气候变化情景生成技术研究的必要性,即影响模式与GCMs的嵌套困难及对气候变率和产量变率的认识。指出该技术是目前这一领域研究的关键所在。在此基础上,阐述了气候变化情景的含义和要求,介绍了常见的气候变化情景生成技术,包括历史资料类比分析法、古气候资料重建与分析法、任意情景法、GCMs输出法及天气发生器系统生成法等。并对每一种方法的使用范围、优点与不足,特别是GCMs输出场的时空尺度解集技术及天气发生器的工作原理进行了详细分析。最后指出利用GCMs与随机天气模式、系统生成气候情景的方法,是当前需大力深入研究的课题。
Abstract:he Necessity for the study on creation of climate change scenarios is analyzed in the light of the simple review of the recent progress in the impact studies of climate change on agriculture,i.e. understanding of the difficulties in coupling General Circulation Models (GCMs) with impact models,and knowledge of climatic and crop yield variability. Consequently,future climate impact studies should become more focused on scenarios' construction in order to get the true results. The creating techniques of climate change scenarios,including historical instrumentally based scenarios,paleoclimatic analogue scenarios,arbitrary scenarios,scenarios from GCMs' outputs and synthetically generated scenarios from Weather Geneator (WGEN),etc. are elaborated as well as their implication,requirement,advantages,disadvantages and usage scopes. Especially,the down scaling techniques in the GCMs based scenarios and the fundamentals of WGEN are discussed in detail. This revie addresses a promising method to produce reasonable climate change scenarios with a high spatial and temporal resolution by combining the information from GCMs simulation and WGEN,thus incorporating climatic variability either,and it should be developed in the future.
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吴金栋,王馥棠,1998.气候变化情景生成技术研究综述[J].气象,24(2):3-8.
,1998.Study on the Creation of Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Analysis:A Review[J].Meteor Mon,24(2):3-8.