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气象:1997,23(11):22-26
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华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
A Comprehensive Technique for Forecasting Regional Torrential Rain in Huabei Area
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中文摘要: 华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术是以HLAFS数值降水预报产品为基础,以物理量诊断为主要依据,综合使用红外卫星云图、常规气象资料和国内外数值预报产品等众多信息逐步订正,以人机结合方式制作华北地区区域性暴雨预报的技术。实验表明,该技术对华北暴雨有较好的判断和预报能力,其主要特点是:基本上模拟预报员的预报思维和业务流程制作暴雨预报;系统分段执行,透明度大,便于改进,也有利于预报员了解暴雨发生发展的机理和规律.
Abstract:The comprehensive technique is a man and computer interactive system for forecasting regional torrential rain in Huabei area,which is based on numerical precipitation prediction products of HLAFS,judged by diagnosis of meteorological elements and corrected step by step by using infrared satellite images,conventional meteorological data and NWP both domestic and abroad. Experimental study shows that this technique has a remarkable ability to identify and forecast torrential rain in Huabei Area. The main characteristics of the system are the following;first,it basically simulates the forecaster's thinking and work procedure to forecast torrential rain;second,as working step by step, the system has higher transparency and is convenient for further improvement and for forecaster to know the mechanism and law of torrential rain onset and development.
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基金项目:中国气象局气象科技“短平快”项目
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引用文本:
李延香,徐传玉,滕俏斌,1997.华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术[J].气象,23(11):22-26.
,1997.A Comprehensive Technique for Forecasting Regional Torrential Rain in Huabei Area[J].Meteor Mon,23(11):22-26.