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气象:1997,23(10):21-26
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“96.8”河北南部罕见特大暴雨的预测检验和成因分析
Check of the Forecast of a Rare Rainstorm in South Area of Hebei Province in 1996
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中文摘要: 1996年8月3—4日,9608号台风在河北南部连降大暴雨和特大暴雨,造成了极其严重的经济损失和人员伤亡。事前,8月1日16时在国家气象中心召开的大会商会上,本人预报:已经登陆福建的9608号台风将向北移动;8月3—4日,我国东部将连续两天处在三个引力波共振和一个引潮力共振减压的叠加区,到时台风只要在110°E以东,当天最大日降水水文站将达500mm以上,气象发报站也可达200—300mm。实况正确。分析表明,8月1—4日,该台风登陆后,其北侧每天均维持一个倒槽,同时东亚有一西风槽东移。8月3—4日,在连
Abstract:On August 3 and 4,1996,Typhoon 9608 made continuous great rainstorm and exceptional rainstorm in south area of Hebei province,and caused very serious economic and personal loss.In advance,I forecasted on the extensive consultation of National Meteorological Center at 16:00,August 1: the Typhoon 9608 which had landed in Fujian province would move to north;on August 3 and 4,the east area of China would continously locate in superposed area of three gravitational wave resonance and one depressed tide generating force′s resonance,at that time if the typhoon is in the east of 110°E,the daily maximum rainfall of hydrometric station would get more than 500mm on that day,and the one of national station would also 200-300mm.The fact accorded with this forecast.The analysis shows:in August 1-4,after this typhoon landed,there was a inverted trough in its north side continously,and a westerly trough moved to east in Eastern Asia.In August 3-4,on the pumping effect of continous depressed tide generating force′s resonance,the inverted trough and westerly trough quickened to merge,and cold air and warm air joined,it promoted potential instability energy strongly release and led to exceptional rainstrom.This successful forecast proved once more that the abnormal superposition of depressed tide generating force′s resonance combined with interal condition of atmosphere is really a effective way to forecast exceptional rainstorm.
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引用文本:
任振球,1997.“96.8”河北南部罕见特大暴雨的预测检验和成因分析[J].气象,23(10):21-26.
,1997.Check of the Forecast of a Rare Rainstorm in South Area of Hebei Province in 1996[J].Meteor Mon,23(10):21-26.