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中文摘要: 1949—1996年的48个盛夏期间,我国北方地区共有10次过程雨量最大值大于400mm的台风暴雨实例。从台风与西风槽相互作用的观点对这10例进行分类。根据实践经验可以把台风槽、河套西风槽、日本海渤海高压、上海地区850hPa东南风急流以及弱冷空气入侵台风等5因子作为分型的判据。结果指出,10例中只有发生于1950、1963、1975、1984和1996年8月上旬的5例属于相互作用型,其他5例不是。此外,用功率谱分析北上台风暴雨,结果得到两种周期:11年和3.1年,上述5个相互作用型的暴雨是这11年周期的主要组成部分。再经过交叉谱分析后指出,台风暴雨的11年周期与太阳黑子数有很高信度的高凝聚值。黑子多年(M年)后5年左右常出现相互作用型的台风特大暴雨。
中文关键词: 台风暴雨,台风与西风槽的相互作用,11年周期,太阳黑子
Abstract:There were ten typhoon torrential rain events in North China during the midsummer from 1949 to 1996.Their maxima of total course rainfall (abbreviated to MTCR) each event were more than 400mm.By using the view point of the interaction between typhoon and westerly trough,weather patterns of these events have been classified.By practical experience,the typhoon trough,Hetao westerly trough,the high pressure of Japanese sea Bohai sea,SE wind jet at 850hPa over Shanghai area and the weak cold air intrusion into typhoon are to be considered as the weather pattern criteria.It is shown that only five of the ten events belong to the interaction weather patterns′ but the others aren′t.These five events took place in the first ten days of Aug.in 1950,1963,1975,1984 and 1996.Besides,the interannual variations in typhoon′s MTCR have been computed by the lag covariance power spectral analysis.It is shown that there are two periods.One is 11 yrs,the other is 31 yrs.And the 5 interaction weather pattern events mentioned above are the main components of the 11 yr period.According to the cross spectral analysis,there is a high coherence with high confidence at intervals of 11 years between the typhoon′s MTCR and the sun spots.Phase angle difference shows that the year of typhoon′s exceptional MTCR in general lags around 5 yrs behind the M year of the sun spots.
keywords: typhoon torrential rain, interaction between typhoon and westerly trough sun spots, 11 years period
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基金项目:本文由国家气象中心
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引用文本:
仇永炎,1997.北方盛夏台风暴雨的天气型及其年际变率[J].气象,23(7):3-9.
,1997.Weather Patterns and Interannual Variations of Typhoon Torrential Rain during Midsummer in North China[J].Meteor Mon,23(7):3-9.
仇永炎,1997.北方盛夏台风暴雨的天气型及其年际变率[J].气象,23(7):3-9.
,1997.Weather Patterns and Interannual Variations of Typhoon Torrential Rain during Midsummer in North China[J].Meteor Mon,23(7):3-9.