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中文摘要: 对太平洋海温与鲁西南第二代棉铃虫发生程度进行相关分析，建立12个相关场，得出两大优势相关区。应用主成份分析合成预报变量建立预报方程，预报时效可提前2—3个月，经1993—1995年3年预报应用均与实况吻合。
中文关键词: 海温,棉铃虫,主成份,长期预报
Abstract:The correlation analysis between the sea temperaturn of the Pacific Ocean and the Holiothis Armigera Hübner generation degree was made, 12 correlation fields were established,2 favourable areas were obtained. The forecast equations were given by use of the principal component analysis and forecast variables. The preper forecast can be made 2 to 3 months in advance. The opera-tionnal forecast from 1993 to 1995 was proved to be coincident with the actual situation.
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引用文本：
侯敬和,孔繁忠,刘厚赞,1997.棉铃虫发生程度长期预报方法[J].气象,23(2):41-44.
,1997.The Long-term Forecast Method of the Holiothis Armigera Hübner Generation Degree[J].Meteor Mon,23(2):41-44.
侯敬和,孔繁忠,刘厚赞,1997.棉铃虫发生程度长期预报方法[J].气象,23(2):41-44.
,1997.The Long-term Forecast Method of the Holiothis Armigera Hübner Generation Degree[J].Meteor Mon,23(2):41-44.