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中文摘要: 通过对鲁西南日平均气温稳定通过12℃初日与前期北半球500hPa高度场的相关分析，得出一批优势相关区。从相关区中选取因子，利用主成分分析进行组合和浓缩，建立了鲁西南12℃初日预报方程，应用效果理想。
中文关键词: 棉花适播期，预报，主成分分析
Abstract:Based on correlation analysis of the date,after which the mean daily temperature is increasing steadily to above 12℃ in the Southwest of Shandong Province, with the dataset of northern 500hPa monthly mean height, it is found that there are some areas over which the height has close correlation with the date. By selected factors from those areas and usage of principal component analysis to compose the factors,the forecast equation was obtained. The equation was proved useful.
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引用文本：
刘了凡,侯敬和,1997.鲁西南日平均气温稳定通过12℃初日预报[J].气象,23(1):50-52.
,1997.Forecast of the Date When Mean Daily Temperature Increasing Steadily to above 12°C in the Southwest of Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,23(1):50-52.
刘了凡,侯敬和,1997.鲁西南日平均气温稳定通过12℃初日预报[J].气象,23(1):50-52.
,1997.Forecast of the Date When Mean Daily Temperature Increasing Steadily to above 12°C in the Southwest of Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,23(1):50-52.