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气象:1996,22(10):31-34
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综合相似预报法在短期暴雨预报中的应用
(陕西省气象台,西安 710015)
The Usage of Composite Similarity in Short-range Forecast of Heavy Rain
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中文摘要: 该文选取1961—1988年4—11月造成陕西暴雨天气的586个个例,用专家预报暴雨经验与多元相似法相结合,把每个个例总结成一组暴雨指标,同时又做为选取相似的历史样本,在有限区域内对陕西暴雨天气进行短期预报,1989年7—8月作预报9次,其准确率达78%。
Abstract:Selected 586 cases producing shaanxi heavy rain weather during April to Nevember in 1961—1988 ,every case is summarized to a series rain index and a similarity historical sample,using the expert forecasting experiences and multivariate similarity, the short-range heavy rain of shaanxi in limited erea is forecasted. The accuracy of forecasting can reach to 78% during July to August in 1989.
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引用文本:
刘勇,1996.综合相似预报法在短期暴雨预报中的应用[J].气象,22(10):31-34.
,1996.The Usage of Composite Similarity in Short-range Forecast of Heavy Rain[J].Meteor Mon,22(10):31-34.