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气象:1996,22(8):42-45
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1995年夏季T63L16中期预报效果检验
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
The Medium-range Forecasting Efficiency and Verificantion of T63 NWP in the Summer 1995
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中文摘要: 为了考证T63模式的性能与产品的质量,对1995年夏季造成我国暴雨的环流形势和主要影响系统T63的预报结果进行天气学检验和评估。其结果表明,T63较T42有了显著改进。该模式96、120、144及168小时对大气长波和超长波的活动有较好的预报能力,大型环流形势演变的总趋势是可信的,具有重要参考价值。T63对西风带天气系统及副热带高压的预报也比T42好,为中期天气预报提供了信息。
Abstract:In order to understand the performance of T63 NWP and the efficiency of its products,the assessments and synoptic verifications are made for main rain-producing systems and circulation in the summer of 1995. The results show that forecasts by T63 model have significant improvements compared with that by T42. The 96-hours、 120-hours、 144-hours and 168-hours predictions by T63 model are considerably reliable for the motion of atmospheric long wave and extra-long wave. The forecast on tendence of large-scale circulation's evolution becomes better. They are considered to be valuable for the medium-range forecast. The forecasts by T63 model are better than that by T42 for the westerly system and subtropical high. It provides useful information for the medium-range forecast.
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引用文本:
马德贞,王秀文,林玉成,1996.1995年夏季T63L16中期预报效果检验[J].气象,22(8):42-45.
,1996.The Medium-range Forecasting Efficiency and Verificantion of T63 NWP in the Summer 1995[J].Meteor Mon,22(8):42-45.