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气象:1996,22(8):3-8
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近30年我国气候变化的不稳定性及其与农业生产的关系
(中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081)
The Unsteadiness of Climate Change and Its Relationship with Agricultural Production in
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中文摘要: 引入信息论中熵值分析方法,利用全国七大区1961—1990年的气象和产量资料,讨论了近30年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量的熵值时空变化类型,详细分析了我国气候变化的不稳定性。在此基础上,定性讨论了气候波动与农业气象灾害的关系及其对农业产量的影响,并分区建立了产量与气象要素熵的回归模型。
Abstract:Based on the data of meteorology and crop yield in 7 regions of China from 1961 to 1990,the method of entropy analysis in information theory is applied to discussion of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of the entropy change of 4 meteorological factors (mean temperature, maximal temperature, minimal temperature and rainfall) in recent 30 years. The unsteadiness of climate change in China is analyzed in detail. After that,the relationship between climate fluctuation and agrometeorological disasters and the impacts of climate fluctuation on crop yield are revealed qualitatively. The regression models of yield and entropy of meteorological factors in different regions are established.
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引用文本:
吴金栋,太华杰,1996.近30年我国气候变化的不稳定性及其与农业生产的关系[J].气象,22(8):3-8.
,1996.The Unsteadiness of Climate Change and Its Relationship with Agricultural Production in[J].Meteor Mon,22(8):3-8.