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气象:1996,22(7):6-11
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北京降水缺测资料恢复的研究
(北京大学地球物理系,北京 100871)
A Study of Missing Data Reconstruction and Predictability for Precipitation in Beijing
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中文摘要: 利用1941-1980年北京降水量资料进行了缺测降水量资料恢复的研究,对单月序列使用非线性函数作降水量正态化的变换,然后用预测残差最小逐步回归及对多月序列使用各月降水量变换序列、各月降水量变换序列与各月气温混合序列为因子作缺测资料恢复和用各月缺测资料前后实测资料作简单内插恢复等三种方案进行试验。结果表明,以降水和气温作混合因子使用残差最小逐步回归模型有最好的可预报性。还使用该方案对1841-1950年的缺测降水量资料进行恢复。
Abstract:A study of missing data reconstruction and predictability for precipitation in Beijing is completed in the period of 1841-1980. The new variable of precipitation with nonlinear transform has been done for following Gauss distribution. Further the method of stepwise regression with minimum of forecast error has been employed for reconstructing the missing data using the data of temperature and precipitation in earlier months and years as predictors. Three experimental schemes of using only precipitations or the composite of temperature and precipitation and sample insert value between data are adopted. The results show that the scherne of using the composite factors of temperature and precipitation has good predictability. The missing data in the period has been reconstructed.
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基金项目:本探究得到国家基础研究重大关键项目和自然科学基金资助
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引用文本:
黄嘉佑,张镡,1996.北京降水缺测资料恢复的研究[J].气象,22(7):6-11.
,1996.A Study of Missing Data Reconstruction and Predictability for Precipitation in Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,22(7):6-11.