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中文摘要: 作者试图从辩证法观点分析概率天气预报之所以兴起的认识论动机和社会经济动机，指出了概率天气预报的产生既是人对天气气候变化同时具有确定性和随机性的认识不断深化的结果，也是社会经济发展到一定阶段、经济决策日益定量化和精细化的客观需要；阐述了气象-经济决策这一跨学科领域与概率天气预报之间的相互关系，并用一个简单的气象-经济决策模式从理论上和实例计算结果证明了概率天气预报比传统的天气预报有更高的经济价值。
中文关键词: 概率天气预报，随机性，气象-经济决策
Abstract:It is pointed out that two principal motivations exist for formulating and expressing weather forecasts in probabilistic terms,that is,the human's deepening cognition of the stochastic nature inherent in weather and climate change,and the increasing need for quantitative and precise decision-making in socioeconomic activities. The relation between probabilistic forecasting and meteorological economic decision-making is briefly discussed. Finally,a decision-making model is given to demonstrate that the economic value of probabilistic forecasts generally exceeds that of categorical forecasts.
keywords: probabilistic weather forecasting,stochastic nature,meteorological-economic decision-making
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引用文本：
史国宁,1996.概率天气预报的兴起及其社会经济意义[J].气象,22(5):3-8.
,1996.The Cognitive and Socioeconomic Motivations for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,22(5):3-8.
史国宁,1996.概率天气预报的兴起及其社会经济意义[J].气象,22(5):3-8.
,1996.The Cognitive and Socioeconomic Motivations for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,22(5):3-8.