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中文摘要: 在分析了国内外台风预报实际业务流程的背景下，设计了一个业务上实用的概率国客现综合决策台风路径预报的决策模型。采用了以误差概率圆的重叠区为导向的新的客观综合决策路径预报方法，对综合利用各种路径预报方法，自动客观地决策做了新的尝试。在软件设计上解决了自动判定，抽取客现决策参考点的技术难题。检验效果证明它优于一般的回归决策水平。
中文关键词: 台风路径，客观决策，业务预报
Abstract:Based on the analysis of operational process of typhoon prediction,an objective comprehensive model of probability ellipse is designed to determine the typhoon track forecast. It isa new taste for synthetical application of each track forecasting methods and automatical objective decision. The difficult technique of automatic distinguish and the selection of objectivedecision reference point in software design are solved. The result shows it is better than thegeneral regression decision level.
keywords: typhoon track,decision,prediction
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引用文本：
朱定真,樊永富,周曾奎,1996.用概率圆法决策台风预报路径[J].气象,22(1):26-28.
,1996.The Probability Ellipse Method of Typhoon Track Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,22(1):26-28.
朱定真,樊永富,周曾奎,1996.用概率圆法决策台风预报路径[J].气象,22(1):26-28.
,1996.The Probability Ellipse Method of Typhoon Track Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,22(1):26-28.