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中文摘要: 通过对神农架林区1970-1991年的森林火灾资料和前期青藏高原月平均气温的相关分析,建立该区3-5月林火发生率的长期预报统计模型,经1992和1993年的实况验证,预报效果良好。
中文关键词: 森林火灾，长期预报，相关分析
Abstract:The correlation analysis between the forest fire data in Shennongjia area and the monthly mean temperature over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1970 to 1991 has beed conducted. The long-term forecasting model of forest fire occurrence in this area from March to May is established. Varification of the actual situation in 1992 and 1993 suggests that the effect of this model is proved to be successful.
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基金项目:中国气象局气象科技应用开发研究基金资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本：
杨贤为,张强,1995.神农架森林火灾发生率的长期预报[J].气象,21(12):42-44.
,1995.An Experiment on Long-term Forecasting of Forest Fire Occurrence in Shennongjia Area[J].Meteor Mon,21(12):42-44.
杨贤为,张强,1995.神农架森林火灾发生率的长期预报[J].气象,21(12):42-44.
,1995.An Experiment on Long-term Forecasting of Forest Fire Occurrence in Shennongjia Area[J].Meteor Mon,21(12):42-44.