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气象:1995,21(8):17-22
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广东台风特大暴雨预报
(广州中心气象台,510080)
A Study of Forecasting Tropical Storms and Severe Rainfall in the Guangdong Province
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中文摘要: 使用台风年鉴、天气图、卫星云图等气象资料,对1960-1991年影响广东的39例特大暴雨台风进行了对比分析。台风特大暴雨主要是由其云系中的中尺度强降水系统造成,归纳出形成发展的概念模式和相应环境流场特征,建立预报思路与方法。1994年作15次预报试验,其准确率达73%。
Abstract:Based on conventional weather observation data and satellite images, 39 cases of tropical storms and severe rainfall in Guangdong Province between 1960 and, 1991 were analysed. It is found that tropical storms severe rainfall was mainly generated by meso-scale rain storm systems.A conception model and its forecasting approches of tropical storms and severe rainfall are given.In pre-operational experiments during 1994 tropical storms season, the forecast accuracy was 73%.
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基金项目:"八·五"国家气象科技攻关课题
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引用文本:
李献州,贺忠,1995.广东台风特大暴雨预报[J].气象,21(8):17-22.
,1995.A Study of Forecasting Tropical Storms and Severe Rainfall in the Guangdong Province[J].Meteor Mon,21(8):17-22.