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中文摘要: 年旱涝时间序列是一动态系统。我们采用特殊的CARMA模型即带受控制项的自回归模型(CAN)对动态系统进行建模。并试图用较少的状态变量来描述系统的宏观行为。研究结果认为:用3个受控变量就可以描述安康市的年旱涝演变规律,并建立了CAR模型。用CAR模型作年旱涝预报能达到较高的精度,特别是大旱、大涝年预报效果最佳。试用表明预报与实况的相对误差为8.7%一12.6%。
中文关键词: 旱涝，长期预报，CAR模型
Abstract:The time series of annual drought and flood in Ankang prefecture , Shanxi province is of a dynamic system. Using the controlled auto-regression model(CAR), a special CARMA model, the system is modelled. The CAR prediction model of three controlled variables has been obtained,and it is applied to predict annual drought/flood tendency in Ankang region. Its accuracy is very well.
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引用文本：
郑洪初,1995.用CAR模型作年旱涝长期天气预报的研究[J].气象,21(7):51-53.
,1995.The Research on Annual Drought and Long-term Flood Prediction by CAR Model[J].Meteor Mon,21(7):51-53.
郑洪初,1995.用CAR模型作年旱涝长期天气预报的研究[J].气象,21(7):51-53.
,1995.The Research on Annual Drought and Long-term Flood Prediction by CAR Model[J].Meteor Mon,21(7):51-53.