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中文摘要: 在应用各种预报方法作每日的天气预报时,常遇到各种预报方法的结果不一致的情形,这时需集各预报结果为一体作为群体决策意见。作者介绍了后置群体评价方法在天气预报决策中的具体应用,用该方法进行决策,取得了较理想的效果。
Abstract:The application of the group post-appraising method in weather forecasting is presented.It happens that the result is of difference to the forecasting of a certain day from different technological sources when possible weather situation prediction is made,or that each predictor will draw a different conclusion based on forecasters'own technological devices or approaches.Only then is it necessary by the approach to piece together various results as a whole so that group decision can be reached.The application is to make an overall evaluation of each result about rainfall and rain region plus the result based on experience.It has proved that the application is unique in this field and more effective and has actually become one of the effective approaches.
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基金项目:
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 高涛 | 内蒙古气象台，呼和浩特 010051 |
| 呼和朝鲁 | 内蒙古气象台，呼和浩特 010051 |
| 李彰俊 | 内蒙古气象台，呼和浩特 010051 |
| 丁晓华 | 内蒙古气象台，呼和浩特 010051 |
| 司瑶冰 | 内蒙古气象台，呼和浩特 010051 |
| Author Name | Affiliation |
引用文本：
高涛,呼和朝鲁,李彰俊,丁晓华,司瑶冰,1995.后置群体评价方法在天气预报决策中的应用[J].气象,21(5):14-17.
,1995.The Application of the Group Post-Appraising Method to the Decision of Weather Forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,21(5):14-17.
高涛,呼和朝鲁,李彰俊,丁晓华,司瑶冰,1995.后置群体评价方法在天气预报决策中的应用[J].气象,21(5):14-17.
,1995.The Application of the Group Post-Appraising Method to the Decision of Weather Forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,21(5):14-17.