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中文摘要: 依据福建将乐县30年二化螟发生的历史资料,选用上年11月一当年2月极端最低气温,3月≥12℃的有效积温及雨日,上年10月一当年3月的霜日,3月极端最低气温,上年末代蛾高峰日作预报因子,运用Fuzzy综合决策模型[1]对越冬代二化螟蛾高峰期进行预报,历史拟合率达96.67%,且精细度每3天为1级,比逐步回归分析提高3倍。
中文关键词: 二化螟，综合决策，Fuzzy模型，预报，发生期
Abstract:According to the historical data and literature about the occurence of striped rice borer in Jiangle County, Fujian Province, with the extreme microtherm from November of last year to February of this year and the. effective accumulative temperature being equal to 12℃ or higher,the rainy days in March,the frost days from October of last year to March of this year, the extreme microtherm in March, the height period of the occurence of last generation of the snout moth as a forecasting basis,Fuzzy Comprehensive Policy-making Model is used to forecast thehigh pened of overwiniering striped rice borer. In that case,the rate of fitting with the historical cases would reach 96. 67 per centum. And the precision would be up to I class every three days,which enhances three times of the precision of the progressive regression analysis.
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引用文本：
倪炳卿,林永俊,1995.用Fuzzy模型预报越冬代二化螟的发生期[J].气象,21(2):55-57.
,1995.The Use of Fuzzy Comprehensive Policy-making Method in the Forecast of the Occurence Period of Overwintering Striped Rice Borer[J].Meteor Mon,21(2):55-57.
倪炳卿,林永俊,1995.用Fuzzy模型预报越冬代二化螟的发生期[J].气象,21(2):55-57.
,1995.The Use of Fuzzy Comprehensive Policy-making Method in the Forecast of the Occurence Period of Overwintering Striped Rice Borer[J].Meteor Mon,21(2):55-57.