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气象:1993,19(5):27-33
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T42预报产品的预报能力与天气学分析
(中央气象台,北京 100081)
The Efficiency of T42 NWP Products and Synoptic Analysis in China
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中文摘要: 为了考证T42模式的性能与产品的质量,对1992年T42中期预报部分产品加工处理后获取的有关参数进行了综合分析,并通过对大型环流形势演变与调整的考查,以及对重大天气实例的释用认为,T4296小时、120小时预报,对大气长波和超长波的活动有一定预报能力,大型环流形势演变的总趋势与总动向基本可信,具有中期参考价值。模式对西风带大型环流形势的预报能力优于对副热带系统的预报能力。南支锋区及南支锋区上系统的生消和对副热带高压的预报失真明显,是模式改进
Abstract:In order to understand the performance of T42 NWP and the efficiency of its products,the comprehensive analysis is made on the parameters obtained case studies of T42 prediction products in 1992. Meanwhile, the investigations on the evolution of the large-scale circulation and its adjustment are taken and the significant weather processes are taken into account. The results show that the 96-hour and 120-hour forecasts by T42 model are reasonably reliable for the motions of the atmospheric long wave and extra-long waves. They are considered to be valuable for the medium-range forecasting of the tendency and trend related to the evolution of the large-scale circulation. The model is better working in forecasting of the westerly belt circulation than in prediction of the subtropical circulation. However,the significant distortion appears when the model is used for forecasting of the southern frontal area and its formation and extinction. This is the key point when the model is improved.
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引用文本:
张芬馥,刘国强,1993.T42预报产品的预报能力与天气学分析[J].气象,19(5):27-33.
,1993.The Efficiency of T42 NWP Products and Synoptic Analysis in China[J].Meteor Mon,19(5):27-33.