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中文摘要: 用长江流域25个站5—9月降水量的第一特征向量的时间系数作为表征长江流域的旱涝指数,分析了它与前期北太平洋海温和500hPa高度场的关系。经过对初选预报因子代表性和稳定性分析后,确定出7个预报因子。利用多元模糊回归分析探讨了这一区域旱涝趋势的预测问题。
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Abstract:The time coefficient series of the first characteristic vector of May-September precipitation at twenty-five stations is regarded as the drought/flood index over the Changjiang River valley. The correlation between the index and SST of the North Pacific and 500hPa height in the Northern Hemisphere is analysed and seven, factors have been examined and the stability of the factors are selected. The drought/flood trend of the area is predicted by use of the multiple fuzzy regression analysis.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金
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引用文本：
魏凤英,郝跟成,1991.多元模糊回归分析在长江流域旱涝趋势预测中的应用[J].气象,17(12):8-12.
,1991.Application of multiple fuzzy regression analysis of the drought/flood trend prediction over the Changjiang River valley[J].Meteor Mon,17(12):8-12.
魏凤英,郝跟成,1991.多元模糊回归分析在长江流域旱涝趋势预测中的应用[J].气象,17(12):8-12.
,1991.Application of multiple fuzzy regression analysis of the drought/flood trend prediction over the Changjiang River valley[J].Meteor Mon,17(12):8-12.