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中文摘要: 在分析长江流域旱涝变化趋势及主要分布特征基础上,用提取的特征向量的主分量作为表征这一区域旱涝异常的指标。利用一种新的时间序列建模方案,建立了旱涝趋势的预测模型。
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Abstract:Based on the analysis of the variation and character of major distribution of the drought/flood along the reaches of the Changjiang River, the principal components of characteristic vector arc regarded MS,the drought/flood index. The trend prediction model is built using a new modelling scheme.
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基金项目:“长江、黄河旱涝预测”基金
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引用文本：
魏凤英,曹鸿兴,1990.长江流域旱涝趋势的主分量预测模型[J].气象,16(8):20-24.
,1990.The model for drought/flood trend prediction with the principal component along the reaches of the Chang Jiang River[J].Meteor Mon,16(8):20-24.
魏凤英,曹鸿兴,1990.长江流域旱涝趋势的主分量预测模型[J].气象,16(8):20-24.
,1990.The model for drought/flood trend prediction with the principal component along the reaches of the Chang Jiang River[J].Meteor Mon,16(8):20-24.