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投稿时间:2023-09-21 修订日期:2024-06-06
投稿时间:2023-09-21 修订日期:2024-06-06
中文摘要: 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率模式预报产品以及中国气象局陆面数据同化系统逐小时气温实况,构建一种改进的长短期记忆网络ED-LSTM-FCNN模型,模型中加入嵌入层模块处理高维空间、时间特征,并通过全连接神经网络融合不同类型特征实现气温的回归预测,生成0.05°×0.05°格点逐1 h气温预报产品。针对湖南省2022年预报检验表明:该模型能显著降低数值模式的预报误差,提高预报稳定性,1~24 h预报时效均方根误差比模式预报与中央台指导预报分别降低了25.4 %~37.7 %和15.8 %~40.0 %;模型明显改善了数值模式在空间上(尤其是复杂地形)的预报效果,大部分地区均方根误差介于1.2~1.6 ℃;该模型在不同季节的2 ℃预报准确率达85.0 %以上,明显高于模式预报与中央台指导预报,在平稳性极端高温天气优势更加明显,该方法可有效应用于智能网格预报业务中。
中文关键词: 网格预报,长短期记忆网络,气温预报,深度学习
Abstract:Based on forecast products of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Integrated Forecasting System(ECMWF-IFS) and hourly temperature observation data from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System(CLDAS), an enhanced model named ED-LSTM-FCNN is constructed, incorporating an embedding layer module to handle high-dimensional spatial and temporal features. A fully connected neural network was utilized to integrate various features types and achieve regression prediction of temperature, generating gridded hourly temperature forecast products with a resolution of 0.05°×0.05°. Verification for the 2022 forecast in Hunan Province revealed that the model exhibits a notable capacity to mitigate forecast errors inherent in the numerical model, thereby enhancing the overall forecast stability. The root mean square errors (RMSE) for forecast lead times ranging from 1 to 24 hours exhibit a reduction of 25.4% to 37.7% when compared to ECMWF-IFS and a decrease of 15.8% to 40.0% in comparison to the SCMOC. The model significantly enhances the forecast performance of ECMWF-IFS in spatial prediction, particularly in regions characterized by intricate terrain features. The RMSEs across most areas vary within the range of 1.2 ℃ to 1.6 ℃. The forecast accuracy of the model, with an error margin of ±2 ℃, surpasses 85.0% across various seasons, demonstrating a significant improvement compared to both ECMWF-IFS and SCMOC. The forecasting performance is notably superior, particularly in stable extreme high-temperature weather conditions, when compared to alternative products. In conclusion, this method proved to be effective for high-resolution temperature grid forecasting operations.
文章编号:202309210220 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:湖南省气象局创新发展专项(青年专项)(CXFZ2024-QNZX23)、国家自然科学基金(U2342219)、国家重点研发计划资助(2023YFC3007800)、中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2023Z022、2023Z013)和中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2023KJ022、2024KJ008)共同资助
作者 | 单位 | 地址 |
卢姝 | 湖南省气象台 | 湖南省长沙市天心区芙蓉南路4段196号省气象局 |
陈鹤* | 湖南省气象台 | 芙蓉南路4段196号省气象局 |
陈静静 | 湖南省气象台 | |
赵琳娜 | 中国气象科学研究院 | |
郭田韵 | 湖南省气象服务中心 |
Author Name | Affiliation | Address |
Lu Shu | Hunan Meteorological Observatory | 湖南省长沙市天心区芙蓉南路4段196号省气象局 |
Chen He | 芙蓉南路4段196号省气象局 | |
Chen Jingjing | ||
Zhao Linna | ||
Guo TianYun |
引用文本:
Lu Shu,Chen He,Chen Jingjing,Zhao Linna,Guo TianYun,0.Gridded Temperature Forecast Model in Hunan Based on Improved Long Short-Term Memory Networks[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Lu Shu,Chen He,Chen Jingjing,Zhao Linna,Guo TianYun,0.Gridded Temperature Forecast Model in Hunan Based on Improved Long Short-Term Memory Networks[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Lu Shu,Chen He,Chen Jingjing,Zhao Linna,Guo TianYun,0.Gridded Temperature Forecast Model in Hunan Based on Improved Long Short-Term Memory Networks[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Lu Shu,Chen He,Chen Jingjing,Zhao Linna,Guo TianYun,0.Gridded Temperature Forecast Model in Hunan Based on Improved Long Short-Term Memory Networks[J].Meteor Mon,():-.